Comparing parametric and non-parametric approaches for estimating trends in multi-year NDVI

The aim of this study is to systematically compare parametric and non-parametric techniques for analyzing trends in annual NDVI derived from NOAA AVHRR sensor in order to examine how trend type and departure from normality assumptions affect the accuracy of detecting long-term change. To generate annual data, the mean NDVI of a four-month long ‘green’ season was computed for fifteen sites (located in Africa, Spain, Italy, Sweden, and Iraq) from the GIMMS product for the periods 1982-2006. Trends in these time series were then estimated by Ordinary Least-Squares (OLS) regression (parametric) and the combined Mann-Kendall test with Theil-Sen slope estimator (non-parametric), and compared using slope value and statistical significance measures. We also estimated optimal polynomial model for the annual NDVI, by using Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), to determine the trend type at each site. Results indicate that slopes and their statistical significances obtained from the two approaches at sites with low degree polynomials (mostly linear) and steep monotonic (gradually increasing or decreasing) trends compare favourably with one another. At sites with weak linear slopes, the two approaches had similar results as well. Exceptions include sites with abrupt step-like changes resulting in departures from linearity and consequently high degree polynomials where the least-squares method outperformed the Mann-Kendall Theil-Sen method. In sum, we conclude that OLS is superior for detecting NDVI trends using annual data though further investigation using other techniques is recommended

Road traffic noise and hypertension: results from a cross-sectional public health survey in southern Sweden

BACKGROUND: Results from studies of road traffic noise and hypertension are heterogeneous with respect to effect size, effects among males and females and with respect to effects across age groups. Our objective was to further explore these associations. METHODS: The study used cross-sectional public health survey data from southern Sweden, including 24,238 adults (18 - 80 years old). We used a geographic information system (GIS) to assess the average road noise (LAeq 24 hr) at the current residential address. Effects on self-reported hypertension were estimated by logistic regression with adjustment for age, sex, BMI, alcohol intake, exercise, education, smoking and socioeconomic status. RESULTS: Modest exposure effects (OR approximately 1.1) were generally noted in intermediate exposure categories (45 -64 dB(A)), and with no obvious trend. The effect was more pronounced at > 64 dB(A) (OR 1.45, 95% CI 1.04 - 2.02). Age modified the relative effect (p = 0.018). An effect was seen among middle-aged (40 - 59 years old) at noise levels 60 - 64 dB(A) (OR = 1.27, 95% CI 1.02 - 1.58)) and at > 64 dB(A) (OR = 1.91, 95% CI 1.19 - 3.06)). An effect was also indicated among younger adults but not among elderly. No apparent effect modification by gender, country of origin, disturbed sleep or strained economy was noted. CONCLUSION: The study supports an association between road traffic noise at high average levels and self-reported hypertension in middle-aged. Future studies should use age group -specific relative effect models to account for differences in prevalence

The supply and demand of net primary production in the Sahel

Net primary production (NPP) is the principal source of energy for ecosystems and, by extension, human populations that depend on them. The relationship between the supply and demand of NPP is important for the assessment of socio-ecological vulnerability. We present an analysis of the supply and demand of NPP in the Sahel using NPP estimates from the MODIS sensor and agri-environmental data from FAOSTAT. This synergistic approach allows for a spatially explicit estimation of human impact on ecosystems. We estimated the annual amount of NPP required to derive food, fuel and feed between 2000 and 2010 for 22 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. When comparing annual estimates of supply and demand of NPP, we found that demand increased from 0.44 PgC to 1.13 PgC, representing 19% and 41%, respectively, of available supply due to a 31% increase in the human population between 2000 and 2010. The demand for NPP has been increasing at an annual rate of 2.2% but NPP supply was near-constant with an inter-annual variability of approximately 1.7%. Overall, there were statistically significant (p < 0.05) increases in the NPP of cropland (+6.0%), woodland (+6.1%) and grassland/savanna (+9.4%), and a decrease in the NPP of forests (−0.7%). On the demand side, the largest increase was for food (20.4%) followed by feed (16.7%) and fuel (5.5%). The supply-demand balance of NPP is a potentially important tool from the standpoint of sustainable development, and as an indicator of stresses on the environment stemming from increased consumption of biomass

Recreational values of the natural environment in relation to neighbourhood satisfaction, physical activity, obesity and wellbeing.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this population-based study was to investigate associations between recreational values of the close natural environment and neighbourhood satisfaction, physical activity, obesity and wellbeing. METHODS: Data from a large public health survey distributed as a mailed questionnaire in suburban and rural areas of southern Sweden were used (N = 24,819; 59% participation rate). Geocoded residential addresses and the geographical information system technique were used to assess objectively five recreational values of the close natural environment: serene, wild, lush, spacious and culture. RESULTS: On average, a citizen of the Scania region, inner city areas excluded, only had access to 0.67 recreational values within 300 metres distance from their residence. The number of recreational values near the residence was strongly associated with neighbourhood satisfaction and physical activity. The effect on satisfaction was especially marked among tenants and the presence of recreational values was associated with low or normal body mass index in this group. A less marked positive association with vitality among women was observed. No evident effect on self-rated health was detectable. CONCLUSIONS: Immediate access to natural environments with high recreational values was rare in the study population and was distributed in an inequitable manner. Moreover, such access was associated with a positive assessment of neighbourhood satisfaction and time spent on physical activity, which can be expected to reduce obesity and increase vitality by having a buffering effect on stress

The El Niño – La Niña cycle and recent trends in supply and demand of net primary productivity in African drylands

Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2016. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Springer for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Climatic Change 138 (2016): 111-125, doi:10.1007/s10584-016-1730-1.Inter-annual climatic variability over a large portion of sub-Saharan Africa is under the influence of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Extreme variability in climate is a threat to rural livelihoods in sub-Saharan Africa, yet the role of ENSO in the balance between supply and demand of net primary productivity (NPP) over this region is unclear. Here, we analyze the impact of ENSO on this balance in a spatially explicit framework using gridded population data from the WorldPop project, satellite-derived data on NPP supply, and statistical data from the United Nations. Our analyses demonstrate that between 2000 and 2013 fluctuations in the supply of NPP associated with moderate ENSO events average ±2.8 g C m-2 yr-1 across sub-Saharan drylands. The greatest sensitivity is in arid Southern Africa where a +1oC change in the Niño-3.4 sea surface temperature index is associated with a mean change in NPP supply of -6.6 g C m-2 yr-1. Concurrently, the population-driven trend in NPP demand averages 3.5 g C m-2 yr-1 over the entire region with densely populated urban areas exhibiting the highest mean demand for NPP. Our findings highlight the importance of accounting for the role ENSO plays in modulating the balance between supply and demand of NPP in sub-Saharan drylands. An important implication of these findings is that increase in NPP demand for socio-economic metabolism must be taken into account within the context of climate-modulated supplyFunding for this project was provided by the Swedish National Space Board (contract no. 100/11 to J.A.). A.M.A. received support from the Royal Physiographic Society in Lund and the Lund University Center for Studies of Carbon Cycle and Climate Interactions (LUCCI). C.C.U. was supported by NSF grant OCE-1203892.2017-07-0

Relation between seasonally detrended shortwave infrared reflectance data and land surface moisture in semi-arid Sahel

In the Sudano-Sahelian areas of Africa droughts can have serious impacts on natural resources, and therefore land surface moisture is an important factor. Insufficient conventional sites for monitoring land surface moisture make the use of Earth Observation data for this purpose a key issue. In this study we explored the potential of using reflectance data in the Red, Near Infrared (NIR), and Shortwave Infrared (SWIR) spectral regions for detecting short term variations in land surface moisture in the Sahel, by analyzing data from three test sites and observations from the geostationary Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) satellite. We focused on responses in surface reflectance to soil- and surface moisture for bare soil and early to mid- growing season. A method for implementing detrended time series of the Shortwave Infrared Water Stress Index (SIWSI) is examined for detecting variations in vegetation moisture status, and is compared to detrended time series of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). It was found that when plant available water is low, the SIWSI anomalies increase over time, while the NDVI anomalies decrease over time, but less systematically. Therefore SIWSI may carry important complementary information to NDVI in terms of vegetation water status, and can provide this information with the unique combination of temporal and spatial resolution from optical geostationary observations over Sahel. However, the relation between SIWSI anomalies and periods of water stress were not found to be sufficiently robust to be used for water stress detection

Greenhouse gas observation network design for Africa

An optimal network design was carried out to prioritise the installation or refurbishment of greenhouse gas (GHG) monitoring stations around Africa. The network was optimised to reduce the uncertainty in emissions across three of the most important GHGs: CO2, CH4, and N2O. Optimal networks were derived using incremental optimisation of the percentage uncertainty reduction achieved by a Gaussian Bayesian atmospheric inversion. The solution for CO2 was driven by seasonality in net primary productivity. The solution for N2O was driven by activity in a small number of soil flux hotspots. The optimal solution for CH4 was consistent over different seasons. All solutions for CO2 and N2O placed sites in central Africa at places such as Kisangani, Kinshasa and Bunia (Democratic Republic of Congo), Dundo and Lubango (Angola), Zoétélé (Cameroon), Am Timan (Chad), and En Nahud (Sudan). Many of these sites appeared in the CH4 solutions, but with a few sites in southern Africa as well, such as Amersfoort (South Africa). The multi-species optimal network design solutions tended to have sites more evenly spread-out, but concentrated the placement of new tall-tower stations in Africa between 10ºN and 25ºS. The uncertainty reduction achieved by the multi-species network of twelve stations reached 47.8% for CO2, 34.3% for CH4, and 32.5% for N2O. The gains in uncertainty reduction diminished as stations were added to the solution, with an expected maximum of less than 60%. A reduction in the absolute uncertainty in African GHG emissions requires these additional measurement stations, as well as additional constraint from an integrated GHG observatory and a reduction in uncertainty in the prior biogenic fluxes in tropical Africa

Survey context and question wording affects self reported annoyance due to road traffic noise: a comparison between two cross-sectional studies

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Surveys are a common way to measure annoyance due to road traffic noise, but the method has some draw-backs. Survey context, question wording and answer alternatives could affect participation and answers and could have implications when comparing studies and/or performing pooled analyses. The aim of this study was to investigate the difference in annoyance reporting due to road traffic noise in two types of surveys of which one was introduced broadly and the other with the clearly stated aim of investigating noise and health.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Data was collected from two surveys carried out in the municipality of Malmö, southern Sweden in 2007 and 2008 (n = 2612 and n = 3810). The first survey stated an aim of investigating residential environmental exposure, especially noise and health. The second survey was a broad public health survey stating a broader aim. The two surveys had comparable questions regarding noise annoyance, although one used a 5-point scale and the other a 4-point scale. We used geographic information systems (GIS) to assess the average road and railway noise (L_Aeq,24h) at the participants' residential address. Logistic regression was used to calculate odds ratios for annoyance in relation to noise exposure.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Annoyance at least once a week due to road traffic noise was significantly more prevalent in the survey investigating environment and health compared to the public health survey at levels > 45 dB(A), but not at lower exposure levels. However no differences in annoyance were found when comparing the extreme alternatives "never" and "every day". In the study investigating environment and health, "Noise sensitive" persons were more likely to readily respond to the survey and were more annoyed by road traffic noise compared to the other participants in that survey.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The differences in annoyance reporting between the two surveys were mainly due to different scales, suggesting that extreme alternatives are to prefer before dichotomization when comparing results between the two. Although some findings suggested that noise-sensitive individuals were more likely to respond to the survey investigating noise and health, we could not find convincing evidence that contextual differences affected either answers or participation.</p